Comprehensive seismic loss model of Tehran, Iran in the case of Mosha fault seismic scenario using stochastic finite-fault method

Nazila  Kheirkhah; Reza  Alikhanzadeh; Ozhan  Musavi; Ali  Aghajani; Erfan  Firuzi

doi:10.59400/be.v2i1.470

Comprehensive seismic loss model of Tehran, Iran in the case of Mosha fault seismic scenario using stochastic finite-fault method

Nazila Kheirkhah Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran 1435944411, Iran
Reza Alikhanzadeh International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran 1953714453, Iran
Ozhan Musavi International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran 1953714453, Iran
Ali Aghajani International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran 1953714453, Iran
Erfan Firuzi International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran 1953714453, Iran

Ariticle ID: 470

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.59400/be.v2i1.470

Keywords: stochastic finite-fault model; seismic risk; building damages; casualty; Tehran

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a study carried out to assess probable seismic loss in terms of damage to the residential buildings and the number of fatalities in the case of the Mosha Fault seismic scenario in Tehran, Iran. Accordingly, seismic risk components (including seismic hazards, exposure models, and fragility curves) are evaluated. The stochastic finite-fault method with dynamic corner frequency is applied for quantifying ground motion values. The results show that PGA on the soil surface could range between 0.1 g and 0.45 g. Then, a reliable model of building exposure by analyzing census data from Tehran is compiled. This model included 19 different classes of buildings and is used to evaluate the potential damage to buildings from seismic scenarios. The results indicate that the median damage ratio from 100,000 iterations for the whole of the city is about 6% ± 1.54%. The study found that the central and eastern parts of Tehran are the most vulnerable areas, with an estimated 15,952 residents at risk of losing their lives in this scenario. This is equivalent to 0.2 percent of the total population of Tehran. The findings from this study can be used by local authorities to provide appropriate emergency response and preparedness plans in the case of the Mosha Fault seismic scenario.

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Published

2024-02-20

How to Cite

Kheirkhah, N., Alikhanzadeh, R., Musavi, O., Aghajani, A., & Firuzi, E. (2024). Comprehensive seismic loss model of Tehran, Iran in the case of Mosha fault seismic scenario using stochastic finite-fault method. Building Engineering, 2(1), 470. https://doi.org/10.59400/be.v2i1.470

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