Potential risk factors affecting cost and schedule performance in the case of construction projects in Dire Dawa city administration and Harari region, Ethiopia
Abstract
Construction projects are inherently fragmented and complex, influenced by various risk factors that can significantly affect both costs and schedules. Identifying and prioritizing these risk factors is crucial for enhancing project management and achieving successful outcomes. This research aimed to identify the most significant risk factors affecting construction projects in terms of cost and schedule performance within the Dire Dawa City Administration and Harari Region, considering the perspectives of contractors, clients, and consultants to provide actionable insights for risk mitigation. A comprehensive literature review and pilot survey initially identified 41 risk factors, which were refined through an iterative process to select 42 factors for a detailed questionnaire survey. Additionally, semi-structured interviews were conducted to gather qualitative insights. Data analysis employed mean ratings to identify the top ten risk factors, utilizing Probability Impact (P-I) Matrix and regression techniques to assess each factor’s significance. The results highlighted six critical risk factors among the ten identified as most impactful: inflation, increases in material prices, exchange rate fluctuations, payment delays, poorly coordinated design, and material delays. The findings indicated strong positive correlation values (R = 0.800 and R = 0.840) in both models, suggesting that as one variable increases, the other tends to increase as well. These insights provide valuable guidance for project managers, emphasizing the need to focus on these critical risk factors to improve cost and schedule management, ultimately enhancing project outcomes and minimizing cost overruns in the region.
References
[1]Siraj N, Fayek A. Risk identification and common risk in construction: literature review and content analysis. J Constr Eng Manage. 2019;145.
[2]Ayalew T, Dakhli Z, Lafhaj Z. Characterization of waste in Ethiopian building construction projects. In: Proceedings of the 26th Annual Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction; 2018.
[3]Issa UH, Marouf KG, Faheem H. Analysis of risk factors affecting the main execution activities of roadway construction projects. J King Saud Univ Eng Sci. 2023;35(6):372-83. doi:10.1016/j.jksues.2021.05.004.
[4]Issa UH, Marouf KG, Faheem H. Analysis of risk factors affecting the main execution activities of roadway construction projects. J King Saud Univ Eng Sci. 2023;35(6):372-83. doi:10.1016/j.jksues.2021.05.004.
[5]Leitch M. ISO 31000: 2009—the new international standard on risk management. Risk Anal. 2010;30(6):887.
[6]Amusan L, Dolapo D, Joshua O. Cost and time performance information of building projects in developing economy. Int J Mech Eng Technol. 2017; 8: 918-27.
[7]Koushki PA, Al-Rashid K, Kartam N. Delays and cost increases in the construction of private residential projects in Kuwait. Constr Manag Econ. 2005; 23: 285-94. doi:10.1080/0144619042000326710.
[8]Yadeta A. Critical risks in construction projects in Ethiopia. Int J Civil Eng. 2020; 9: 30-40.
[9]Mitikie B, Lee TS, Lee J. The impact of risk in Ethiopian construction project performance. OALib. 2017; 4: 1-7.
[10]Bahamid RA, Doh S, Al-Sharaf MA. Risk factors affecting construction projects in developing countries. IOP Conf Ser Earth Environ Sci. 2019;244.
[11]Aven T. On the new ISO guide on risk management terminology. Reliab Eng Syst Saf. 2011;96(7):719-26.
[12]Alam MK. A systematic qualitative case study: questions, data collection, NVivo analysis and saturation. Qual Res Organ Manag. 2021;16(1):1-31.
[13]Kamal A, Abas M, Khan D, Azfar RW. Risk factors influencing building projects in Pakistan: from perspective of contractors, clients and consultants. Int J Constr Manag. 2022;22(6):1141-57.
[14]Genc O. Identifying principal risk factors in the Turkish construction sector according to their probability of occurrences: a relative importance index (RII) and exploratory factor analysis (EFA) approach. Int J Constr Manag. 2023;23(6):979-87.
[15]Tessema ZG. Qualitative assessment and quantitative analysis of key issues and factors in the evolution of Ethiopian road, transport and logistics sectors: trends, problems, challenges and prospects. [Thesis]; 2023.
[16]Kululanga G, Kuotcha W. Measuring project risk management process for construction contractors with statement indicators linked to numerical scores. Eng Constr Archit Manag. 2010; 17: 336-51. doi:10.1108/09699981011056556.
[17]Zegeye A, Worku A, Tefera D, Getu M, Sileshi Y. Introduction to research methods. Graduate Studies and Research Office, Addis Ababa University; 2009.
[18]Gizaw EH. Urban governance with respect to cities’ competitiveness in Ethiopia: The cases of Dire Dawa and Hawassa cities. Addis Ababa University; 2017.
[19]Abdishakur W. Assessment of the opportunities and challenges of private investment in Harari Regional State, Ethiopia. St. Mary’s University; 2021.
[20]Kebede KA. The effect of availability of foreign exchange and devaluation of BIRR on the performance of companies in Ethiopia (instance of sample company). Int J Econ Bus Admin (IJEBA). 2024;12(1):99-117.
[21]Ababa A. Ethiopian Environmental Protection Authority fact sheet of Legeoda Mirga Mountain Forest Ecosystem Dire Dawa City Administration; 2024.
[22]Abduselam NA. Rural energy for Ethiopia, GIS based approach [dissertation]. 2021.
[23]Alshihri S, Al-Gahtani K, Almohsen A. Risk factors that lead to time and cost overruns of building projects in Saudi Arabia. Buildings. 2022;12(7):902.
[24]Amini S, Rezvani A, Tabassi M, Malek Sadati SS. Causes of cost overruns in building construction projects in Asian countries; Iran as a case study. Eng Constr Architect Manag. 2023;30(7):2739-66.
[25]Muhammed A, Adindu C. Effect of exchange rate volatility on material price management of selected building construction materials in North Central Nigeria projects. [Publication details unavailable]; 2021.
[26]Muhammed A, Siyaka H, Adindu C. Appraising the causes and effects of construction materials price fluctuation on built environment project delivery in Abuja metropolis. [Publication details unavailable]; 2022.
[27]Musarat MA, Alaloul WS, Liew MS. Impact of inflation rate on construction projects budget: A review. Ain Shams Eng J. 2021;12(1):407-14.
[28]Antoniou F. Delay risk assessment models for road projects. Systems. 2021;9(3):70.
[29]Bunni NG, Bunni LB. Risk and insurance in construction. Routledge; 2022.
[30]Cirone III A, Glaeser N, Kadlec C. Root cause analysis of labor shortages in the skilled trades supporting Navy shipyard maintenance and modernization. Acquisition Research Program; 2023.
[31]Nekatibeb H. Assessment of the implementation of project management practices regarding project quadruple constraints: In the case of CBE head quarter building construction. [Thesis]. St. Mary’s University; 2021.
[32]Woreta K. The effect of supply chain management practices on supply chain responsiveness and competitive advantage of the firm: a case study on Etete Construction, in public building projects. [Thesis]. St. Mary’s University; 2021.
[33]Alzoubi H. BIM as a tool to optimize and manage project risk management. Int J Mech Eng. 2022;7(1).
[34]Jalam AA, Shehu AS, Tafida AI, Ibrahim MA. Evaluation of causes of errors in bills of quantities for public building projects in Northeast Nigeria. ATBU J Environ Technol. 2022;15(2):39-56.
[35]Jeong G, Kim H, Lee HS, Park M, Hyun H. Analysis of safety risk factors of modular construction to identify accident trends. J Asian Archit Build Eng. 2022;21(3):1040-52.
[36]Breaux TD, Norton T. Legal accountability as software quality: A US data processing perspective. In: 2022 IEEE 30th International Requirements Engineering Conference (RE); 2022.
[37]Könönen J. Removals of ‘dangerous’ mobile EU citizens: Public order and security as a police paradigm. Soc Leg Stud. 2024;33(4):601-19.
[38]Nahdi M, Widayati N, Wibowo MA, Sari EM, Tamin RZ, Najid N. Schematic risk management in solicited and unsolicited project. J Infrastruct Policy Dev. 2024;8(9):5472.
[39]Vitalicio HF, Nambiar D. Evaluating contractors’ risk management for telecom poles construction in the United Arab Emirates. [Publication details unavailable]; 2022.
[40]Larionov A, Nezhnikova E, Smirnova E. Risk assessment models to improve environmental safety in the field of the economy and organization of construction: A case study of Russia. Sustainability. 2021;13(24):13539.
[41]Liu H, Li J, Li H, Li H, Mao P, Yuan J. Risk perception and coping behavior of construction workers on occupational health risks—a case study of Nanjing, China. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021;18(13):7040.
[42]Umeokafor N, Windapo AO, Manu P, Diugwu I, Haroglu H. Critical barriers to prevention through design in construction in developing countries: a qualitative inquiry. Eng Construct Archit Manage. 2023;30(7):3014-42.
[43]Asadi R, Rotimi JOB, Wilkinson S. Investigating the relationship between reworks and contractual claims: The salience of contract conditions. J Legal Aff Dispute Resolut Eng Constr. 2022;14(1):04521046.
[44]Babaeian Jelodar M, Yiu TW, Wilkinson S. Empirical modeling for conflict causes and contractual relationships in construction projects. J Constr Eng Manag. 2022;148(5):04022017.
[45]Shash AA, Habash SI. Disputes in construction industry: owners and contractors’ views on causes and remedies. J Eng Project Prod Manage. 2021;11(1):37-51.
[46]Townsend R, Gershon M. Attaining successful construction project execution through personnel and communication. J Constr Eng Manage. 2020;146(9):04020101.
[47]Ahamed MN, Mariappan M. A study to determine human-related errors at the level of top management, safety supervisors & workers during the implementation of safety practices in the construction industry. Saf Sci. 2023; 162:106081.
[48]Faraji A, Homayoon Arya S, Ghasemi E, Soleimani H, Rahnamayiezekavat P. A constructability assessment model based on BIM in urban renewal projects in limited lands. Buildings. 2023;13(10):2599.
[49]Qazi A, Shamayleh A, El-Sayegh S, Formaneck S. Prioritizing risks in sustainable construction projects using a risk matrix-based Monte Carlo simulation approach. Sustain Cities Soc. 2021;65:102576.
[50]Gaur PS, Zimba O, Agarwal V, Gupta L. Reporting survey based studies—a primer for authors. J Korean Med Sci. 2020;35(45):e398.
[51]Rezakhani P. Classifying key risk factors in construction projects. Bull Polyt Iassy, Constr Archit Sect. 2012:27-38.
[52]Bahamid RA, Doh SI. A review of risk management process in construction projects of developing countries. IOP Conf Ser Mater Sci Eng. 2017;271.
[53]Bahamid RA, Doh SI. A review of risk management process in construction projects of developing countries. IOP Conf Ser Mater Sci Eng. 2017;271.
[54]Mhetre KV, Konnur BA, Landage AB. Risk management in construction industry. Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering. 2021.
[55]Saunders M, Lewis P, Thornhill A. Research methods for business students. 4th ed. Harlow: Financial Times/Prentice Hall; 2007.
[56]Jayasudha K, Vidivelli B. Analysis of major risks in construction projects. Constr Innov. 2016;11:6943-50.
[57]Cheng M-Y, Darsa MH. Construction schedule risk assessment and management strategy for foreign general contractors working in the Ethiopian construction industry. Sustainability. 2021.
[58]Saunders L, Verdin E. Sirtuins: critical regulators at the crossroads between cancer and aging. Oncogene. 2007;26(37):5489-504.
[59]Winch GM. Managing construction projects: an information processing approach. 2nd ed. Chichester: Wiley-Blackwell; 2010.
[60]Bryman A. Research methods in the study of leadership. In: The SAGE handbook of leadership. 2011.
[61]Levitt HM, Bamberg M, Creswell JW, Frost DM, Josselson R, Suárez-Orozco C. Journal article reporting standards for qualitative primary, qualitative meta-analytic, and mixed methods research in psychology: The APA Publications and Communications Board task force report. Am Psychol. 2018;73(1):26.
[62]Lindley D. Regression and correlation analysis. In: Time series and statistics. Springer; 1990. p. 237-43.
[63]Hillson D, Murray-Webster R. Understanding and managing risk attitude. In: Proceedings of 7th Annual Risk Conference; London, UK; 2004
[64]Leedy PD, Ormrod JE. Practical research: Planning and design. 11th ed. Boston, MA: Pearson; 2015.
[65]Adams J, Khan HT, Raeside R. Research methods for business and social science students. New Delhi: SAGE Publications India; 2014.
[66]Dumbravă V, Iacob SV. Using probability–impact matrix in analysis and risk assessment projects. J Knowl Manag Econ Inform Technol. 2013;3:1-7.
[67]Andrew G. Analyzing data using SPSS: A practical guide for those unfortunate enough to have to actually do it; 2008.
[68]Taber KS. The use of Cronbach’s alpha when developing and reporting research instruments in science education. Res Sci Educ. 2018;48(6):1273-96.
[69]El-Sayegh S. Risk assessment and allocation in the UAE construction industry. Int J Project Manag. 2008;26:431-8.
[70]Tesfaye A. Assessment of the performance of project financing in the case of Commercial Bank of Ethiopia. [Thesis]. St. Mary’s University; 2020.
[71]Voigt A, Khalaf M, Mattar SG. Impact of cash shortages on project performance. J Legal Aff Dispute Resolut Eng Construct. 2023;15(4):03723003.
[72]Yaro SA, Saidu I, Adamu AD, Anifowose MO. Exploring the perspective of lean construction techniques on the performance of construction projects in Nigeria. [Publication details unavailable]; 2024.
[73]Naimi HAS, Alobadi S. A study of construction delays. Int J Technol Phys Probl Eng. 2023;15(54):296-308.
[74]Dziadosz A, Rejment M. Risk analysis in construction project-chosen methods. Procedia Eng. 2015;122:258-65.
[75]Njogu PM. Assessment of effects of construction risks on project delivery among contractors in Kenya. [Thesis]. JKUAT; 2015.
[76]Graves R. Qualitative risk assessment: We must determine precisely the impact and likelihood of risk if we are to have a valuable assessment of its severity. PM NETWORK. 2000;14(10):61-8.
[77]Laing R. Revaluing construction. J Build Apprais. 2008;4(1):45-6. doi:10.1057/jba.2008.15.
[78]Vichea S. Key factors affecting the performance of foreign direct investment in Cambodia. [Publication details unavailable]; 2005.
[79]Teferi A, Mamo D. Risk management in building construction projects: contractors and consultants perspectives. J Bus Admin Stud. 2021;13(1):31-62.
[80]Babaeian M, Hemant Raut P, Saghatforoush E. Contractor-delay control in building projects: Escalation of strategy from primary proactive to secondary reactive. J Legal Aff Dispute Resolut Eng Constr. 2021;13(2):04521002.
[81]Gupta C, Kumar C. Study of factors causing cost and time overrun in construction projects. Int J Eng Res Technol. 2020;9(10):202-6.
[82]Kafle SC. Correlation and regression analysis using SPSS. Manag Technol Soc Sci. 2019;126.
[83]Field A. Discovering statistics using IBM SPSS statistics. SAGE; 2013.
[84]Samarah A, Bekr GA. Causes and effects of delay in public construction projects in Jordan. Am J Eng Res. 2016;5(5):87-94.
[85]Jaadi Z. A step-by-step explanation of principal component analysis (PCA). Buily In; 2019.
[86]Evans JD. Straightforward statistics for the behavioral sciences. Brooks/Cole Pub. Co.; 1996.
[87]Azam M, Chauhdhry IG, Khan AU. Identification and assessment of critical risk factors in construction projects in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Int Res J Soc Sci Hum. 2024;3(1):436-63.
[88]Montgomery DC, Peck EA, Vining GG. Introduction to linear regression analysis. 5th ed. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons; 2021.
[89]Banerjee D, Putta J, Rao PRM. Risk identification, assessments, and prediction for mega construction projects: A risk prediction paradigm based on cross analytical-machine learning model. Buildings. 2021;11(4):172.
[90]Okudan O, Budayan C, Dikmen I. A knowledge-based risk management tool for construction projects using case-based reasoning. Expert Syst Appl. 2021;173:114776.
Copyright (c) 2024 Yonatan Getachew Zegeye, Mohammadzen Hasan Darsa
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.