Machine learning-based approaches for financial market prediction: A comprehensive review

  • Bhaskar Nandi Department of Computer Science, Seacom Engineering College, Howrah 711302, West Bengal, India
  • Subrata Jana Jadavpur University, Kolkata 700032, West Bengal, India
  • Krishna Pada Das Department of Mathematics, Mahadevananda Mahavidyalaya, Barracpore 700120, Kolkata, West Bengal, India
Ariticle ID: 134
804 Views, 221 PDF Downloads
Keywords: financial markets, literature survey, research paper, machine learning, deep learning

Abstract

This research paper investigates the use of machine learning techniques in financial markets. The paper provides a comprehensive literature review of recent research on machine learning applications in finance, including stock price prediction, financial time series forecasting, and portfolio optimization. Various machine learning techniques, such as regression analysis, decision trees, support vector machines, and deep learning, are discussed in detail, with a focus on their strengths, weaknesses, and potential applications. The paper also highlights the challenges associated with machine learning in finance, such as data quality, model interpretability, and ethical considerations. Overall, the paper demonstrates that machine learning has significant potential in finance but calls for further research to address these challenges and fully explore its potential in financial markets.

References

[1] Harries M, Horn K. Detecting concept drift in financial time series prediction using symbolic machine learning. In: Proceedings of The Eighth Australian Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence; Canberra, Australia. pp. 91–98.

[2] Cao L, Tay FEH. Financial forecasting using support vector machines. Neural Computing & Applications 2001; 10(2): 184–192.

[3] Kim K. Financial time series forecasting using support vector machines. Neurocomputing 2003; 55(1–2): 307–319.

[4] Huang W, Nakamori Y, Wang SY. Forecasting stock market movement direction with support vector machine. Computers & Operations Research 2005; 32(10): 2513–2522. doi: 10.1016/j.cor.2004.03.016

[5] Kumar M, Thenmozhi M. Forecasting stock index movement: A comparison of support vector machines and random forest. Available online: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=876544# (accessed on 16 June 2023).

[6] Ou P, Wang H. Prediction of stock market index movement by ten data mining techniques. Modern Applied Science 2009; 3(12): 28–42.

[7] Majhi R, Panda G, Majhi B, Sahoo G. Efficient prediction of stock market indices using adaptive bacterial foraging optimization (ABFO) and BFO based techniques. Expert systems with applications 2009; 36(6): 10097–10104. doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2009.01.012

[8] Mohapatra P, Raj A, Patra TK. Indian stock market prediction using differential evolutionary neural network model. International Journal of Electronics Communication and Computer Technology (IJECCT) 2012; 2(4): 159–166.

[9] Mao Y, Wei W, Wang B, Liu B. Correlating S&P 500 stocks with Twitter data. In: Proceedings of the first ACM international workshop on hot topics on interdisciplinary social networks research; 12–16 August 2012; Beijing, China. pp. 69–72.

[10] Siew HL, Nordin MJ. Regression techniques for the prediction of stock price trend. In: Proceedings of the 2012 International Conference on Statistics in Science, Business and Engineering (ICSSBE); 10–12 September 2012; Langkawi, Malaysia. pp. 1–5.

[11] Shen S, Jiang H, Zhang T. Stock market forecasting using machine learning algorithms. Available online: https://cs229.stanford.edu/proj2012/ShenJiangZhang-StockMarketForecastingusingMachineLearningAlgorithms.pdf (accessed on 16 June 2023).

[12] Kazem A, Sharifi E, Hussain FK, et al. Support vector regression with chaos-based firefly algorithm for stock market price forecasting. Applied Soft Computing 2013; 13(2): 947–958. doi: 10.1016/j.asoc.2012.09.024

[13] Patel J, Shah S, Thakkar P, Kotecha K. Predicting stock and stock price index movement using trend deterministic data preparation and machine learning techniques. Expert Systems with Applications 2015; 42(1): 259–268. doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2014.07.040

[14] Patel J, Shah S, Thakkar P, Kotecha K. Predicting stock market index using fusion of machine learning techniques. Expert Systems with Applications 2015; 42(4): 2162–2172. doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2014.10.031

[15] Rather AM, Agarwal A, Sastry VN. Recurrent neural network and a hybrid model for prediction of stock returns. Expert Systems with Applications 2015; 42(6): 3234–3241. doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2014.12.003

[16] Xi Y, Peng H, Qin Y, et al. Bayesian analysis of heavy-tailed market microstructure model and its application in stock markets. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 2015; 117: 141–153. doi: 10.1016/j.matcom.2015.06.006

[17] Dash R, Dash PK. A hybrid stock trading framework integrating technical analysis with machine learning techniques. The Journal of Finance and Data Science 2016; 2(1): 42–57. doi: 10.1016/j.jfds.2016.03.002

[18] Gerlein EA, McGinnity M, Belatreche A, Coleman S. Evaluating machine learning classification for financial trading: An empirical approach. Expert Systems with Applications 2016; 54: 193–207. doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2016.01.018

[19] Labiad B, Berrado A, Benabbou L. Machine learning techniques for short term stock movements classification for moroccan stock exchange. In: Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Intelligent Systems: Theories and Applications (SITA 2016); 19–20 October 2016; Mohammedia, Morocco. pp. 1–6.

[20] Usmani M, Adil SH, Raza K, Ali SSA. Stock market prediction using machine learning techniques. In: Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Computer and Information Sciences (ICCOINS 2016); 15–17 August 2016; Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. pp. 322–327.

[21] Tsantekidis A, Passalis N, Tefas A, et al. Using deep learning to detect price change indications in financial markets. In: Proceedings of the 2017 25th European signal processing conference (EUSIPCO); 28 August–2 September 2017; Kos, Greece. pp. 2511–2515.

[22] Chen Y, Hao Y. A feature weighted support vector machine and K-nearest neighbor algorithm for stock market indices prediction. Expert Systems with Applications 2017; 80; 340–355. doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2017.02.044

[23] Hitam NA, Ismail AR. Comparative performance of machine learning algorithms for cryptocurrency forecasting. Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science 2018; 11(3), 1121–1128. doi: 10.11591/ijeecs.v11.i3.pp1121-1128

[24] Martin D, Póczos B, Hollifield B. Machine learning-aided modeling of fixed income instruments. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-second Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems; 2–8 December 2018; Montréal Canada.

[25] Reddy VKS. Stock market prediction using machine learning. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) 2018; 5(10): 1033–1035.

[26] Ren R, Wu DD, Liu T. Forecasting stock market movement direction using sentiment analysis and support vector machine. IEEE Systems Journal 2019; 13(1): 760–770. doi: 10.1109/JSYST.2018.2794462

[27] Lakshminarayanan SK, McCrae JP. A comparative study of SVM and LSTM deep learning algorithms for stock market prediction. In: Proceedings of the 2019 International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Computer Science (AICS 2019); 12–13 July 2019; Wuhan, China. pp. 446–457.

[28] Modi P, Shah S, Shah H. Big data analysis in stock market prediction. International Journal of Engineering Research & Technology (IJERT) 2019; 8(10). doi: 10.17577/IJERTV8IS100224

[29] Mohan S, Mullapudi S, Sammeta S, et al. Stock price prediction using news sentiment analysis. In: Proceedings of the 2019 IEEE Fifth International Conference on Big Data Computing Service and Applications (Bigdata Service); 4–9 April 2019; Newark, CA, USA. pp. 205–208.

[30] Reddy CV. Predicting the stock market index using stochastic time series ARIMA modelling: The sample of BSE and NSE. Indian Journal of Finance 2019; 13(8): 7–25. doi: 10.17010/ijf/2019/v13i8/146301

[31] Zhong X, Enke D. Predicting the daily return direction of the stock market using hybrid machine learning algorithms. Financial Innovation 2019; 5(1): 1–20. doi: 10.1186/s40854-019-0138-0

[32] Basak S, Kar S, Saha S, et al. Predicting the direction of stock market prices using tree-based classifiers. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance 2019; 47: 552–567. doi: 10.1016/j.najef.2018.06.013

[33] Michele A, Colin V, Santika DD. Mobilenet convolutional neural networks and support vector machines for palmprint recognition. Procedia Computer Science 2019; 157: 110–117. doi: 10.1016/j.procs.2019.08.147

[34] Long W, Lu Z, Cui L. Deep learning-based feature engineering for stock price movement prediction. Knowledge-Based Systems 2019; 164: 163–173. doi: 10.1016/j.knosys.2018.10.034

[35] Berislav Ž, Hrvoje J. Forecasting stock market indices using machine learning algorithms. Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems: INDECS 2020; 18(4): 471–489. doi: 10.7906/indecs.18.4.6

[36] Ghasemzadeha M, Mohammad-Karimi N, Ansari-Samani H. Machine learning algorithms for time series in financial markets. Advances in Mathematical Finance and Applications 2020; 5(4): 479–490. doi: 10.22034/AMFA.2020.674946

[37] Khan W, Ghazanfar MA, Azam MA, et al. Stock market prediction using machine learning classifiers and social media, news. Journal of Ambient Intelligence and Humanized Computing 2022; 13: 3433–3456. doi: 10.1007/s12652-020-01839-w

[38] Kilimci ZH, Duvar R. An efficient word embedding and deep learning based model to forecast the direction of stock exchange market using twitter and financial news sites: A case of Istanbul stock exchange (bist 100). IEEE Access 2020; 8: 188186–188198. doi: 10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3029860

[39] Obthong M, Tantisantiwong N, Jeamwatthanachai W, Wills G. A survey on machine learning for stock price prediction: Algorithms and techniques. In: Proceedings of 2nd International Conference on Finance, Economics, Management and IT Business; 5–6 May 2020; Online Streaming.

[40] Chen W, Zhang H, Mehlawat MK, Jia L. Mean-variance portfolio optimization using machine learning—Based stock price prediction. Applied Soft Computing 2021; 100: 106943. doi: 10.1016/j.asoc.2020.106943

[41] Janková Z. A bibliometric analysis of artificial intelligence technique in financial market. Scientific Papers of the University of Pardubice. Series D, Faculty of Economics & Administration 2021; 29(3). doi: 10.46585/sp29031268

[42] Prasad A, Seetharaman A. Importance of machine learning in making investment decision in stock market. Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers 2021; 46(4): 209–222. doi: 10.1177/02560909211059992

[43] Subasi A, Amir F, Bagedo K, et al. Stock market prediction using machine learning. Procedia Computer Science 2021; 194: 173–179. doi: 10.1016/j.procs.2021.10.071

[44] Tiwari S, Ramampiaro H, Langseth H. Machine learning in financial market surveillance: A survey. IEEE Access 2021; 9: 159734–159754. doi: 10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3130843

[45] Beukel VB. Influence of Machine Learning on Stock Pricing: A Meta-analysis [Bachelor’s thesis]. University of Twente; 2022.

[46] Chen Q. Stock market prediction using machine learning. In: Qiu D, Jiao Y, Yeoh W (editors). Atlantis Highlights in Intelligent Systems: Book 5, Proceedings of the 2022 International Conference on Bigdata Blockchain and Economy Management (ICBBEM 2022); 25–27 March 2022; Wuhan, China. Atlantis Press; 2022. Volume 5, pp. 458–465.

[47] Jishtu P, Prajapati H, Fiaidhi J. Prediction of the stock market based on machine learning and sentiment analysis. Available online: https://www.techrxiv.org/articles/preprint/Prediction_of_the_Stock_Market_Based_on_Machine_Learning_and_Sentiment_Analysis/21692852 (accessed on 16 June 2023).

[48] Soni VK, Srivastava D. The use of supervised text classification techniques: A comprehensive study. In: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Advance Computing and Innovative Technologies in Engineering (ICACITE 2022); 28–29 April 2022; Greater Noida, India.

Published
2023-08-28
How to Cite
Nandi, B., Jana, S., & Das, K. P. (2023). Machine learning-based approaches for financial market prediction: A comprehensive review. Journal of AppliedMath, 1(2.1), 134. https://doi.org/10.59400/jam.v1i2.134