The impact of macroeconomic variables on financial performance: A bibliometric analysis

Sanjay Singh  Chauhan; Pradeep  Suri; Farman  Ali; Amit  Joshi

doi:10.59400/fefs2026

Sanjay Singh Chauhan Uttaranchal Institute of Management, Uttaranchal University, Dehradun 248001, India
Pradeep Suri Uttaranchal Institute of Management, Uttaranchal University, Dehradun 248001, India
Farman Ali Uttaranchal Institute of Management, Uttaranchal University, Dehradun 248001, India
Amit Joshi Gandhi Memorial Intercontinental School, Jakarta 14410, Indonesia

Article ID: 2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.59400/fefs2026

Keywords: crude oil; exchange rate; investment; macroeconomic variables; stock market

Abstract

This study aims to review the literature on the relationship between the stock market and macroeconomic variables. Given the stock market’s role in driving economic activity, understanding this interaction is critical for investors, policymakers, and economists. The research uses bibliometric analysis to explore the current literature, identify trends, and map the intellectual landscape. Using Scopus data from 1979 to 2023, 867 publications were analyzed with Bibliophagy, a tool in R’s Bibliometrics package, automating the identification of influential journals, authors, and themes. Citation analysis, co-citation analysis, and social network analysis further provided insights into the academic discourse. The findings show that the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock markets has evolved with changing economic conditions. This study also identifies research gaps and suggests future studies focus on specific industries to understand better how macroeconomic factors impact different economic segments.

References

[1]Pal K, Ruhee M. Impact of macroeconomic indicators on Indian capital markets. The Journal Of Risk Finance. 2011; 12: 84–97

[2]Chen S, Chen T. Untangling the non-linear causal nexus between exchange rates and stock prices. Journal of Economic Studies. 2012; 39(2): 231–259. doi: 10.1108/01443581211222671

[3]Paramati SR, Gupta R. An empirical relationship between exchange rates, interest rates and stock returns. SSRN Electronic Journal. 2013. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2336043

[4]Mukherjee TK, Naka A. Dynamic relations between macroeconomic variables and the japanese stock market: An application of a vector error correction model. Journal of Financial Research. 1995; 18(2): 223–237. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-6803.1995.tb00563.x

[5]Maysami R, Howe LC, Rahmat MA. Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Indices: Cointegration Evidence from Stock Exchange of Singapore’s All-S Sector Indices. Jurnal Pengurusan. 2005; 24: 47–77. doi: 10.17576/pengurusan-2005-24-03

[6]Hung NT. Spillover effects between stock prices and exchange rates for the central and eastern european countries. Global Business Review. 2019; 23(2): 259–286. doi: 10.1177/0972150919869772

[7]Salisu AA, Cuñado J, Isah K, et al. Stock markets and exchange rate behavior of the BRICS. Journal of Forecasting. 2021; 40(8): 1581–1595. doi: 10.1002/for.2795

[8]Humpe A, McMillan DG. Macroeconomic variables and long-term stock market performance. A panel ARDL cointegration approach for G7 countries. Cogent Economics & Finance. 2020; 8(1): 1816257. doi: 10.1080/23322039.2020.1816257

[9]Abbas G, Hammoudeh S, Shahzad SJH, et al. Return and volatility connectedness between stock markets and macroeconomic factors in the G-7 countries. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. 2019; 28(1): 1–36. doi: 10.1007/s11518-018-5371-y

[10]Andrieș AM, Ihnatov I, Tiwari AK. Analyzing time-frequency relationship between interest rate, stock price and exchange rate through continuous wavelet. Economic Modelling. 2014; 41: 227–238. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.05.013

[11]Paramati SR, Gupta R, Maheshwari S, et al. The empirical relationship between the value of rupee and performance of information technology firms: Evidence from India. International Journal of Business and Globalisation. 2016; 16(4): 512–529.

[12]Singhal S, Choudhary S, Biswal PC. Return and volatility linkages among International crude oil price, gold price, exchange rate and stock markets: Evidence from Mexico. Resources Policy. 2019; 60: 255–261. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.01.004

[13]Bashir MF. Oil price shocks, stock market returns, and volatility spillovers: A bibliometric analysis and its implications. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 2022; 29(16): 22809–22828. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-18314-4

[14]García-Corral FJ, Cordero-García JA, de Pablo-Valenciano J, et al. A bibliometric review of cryptocurrencies: How have they grown? Financial Innovation. 2022; 8(1). doi: 10.1186/s40854-021-00306-5

[15]Zhang Z. Stock Returns and Inflation Redux: An Explanation from Monetary Policy in Advanced and Emerging Markets. IMF Working Papers. 2021; 2021(219): 1. doi: 10.5089/9781513586755.001

[16]Zupic I, Čater T. Bibliometric methods in management and organization. Organizational research methods. 2015; 18(3): 429–472.

[17]Tella A, Aisha Olabooye A. Bibliometric analysis of African Journal of Library, Archives and Information Science from 2000–2012. Library Review. 2014; 63(4/5): 305–323. doi: 10.1108/lr-07-2013-0094

[18]Basher SA, Haug AA, Sadorsky P. Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets. Energy Economics. 2012; 34(1): 227–240. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.10.005

[19]El-Sharif I, Brown D, Burton B, et al. Evidence on the nature and extent of the relationship between oil prices and equity values in the UK. Energy Economics. 2005; 27(6): 819–830. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2005.09.002

[20]Surachai C, Kamonchai R. The impact of coup d’états on the relationship between stock market and exchange rate: Evidence from Thailand. Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies. 2019.

[21]Aria M, Cuccurullo C. Bibliometrix: An R-tool for comprehensive science mapping analysis. Journal of Informetrics. 2017; 11(4): 959–975. doi: 10.1016/j.joi.2017.08.007

[22]Zhu H, Guo Y, You W. An empirical research of crude oil price changes and stock market in China: Evidence from the structural breaks and quantile regression. Applied Economics. 2015; 47(56): 6055–6074.

[23]Mensi W, Hammoudeh S, Yoon SM, et al. Impact of macroeconomic factors and country risk ratings on GCC stock markets: Evidence from a dynamic panel threshold model with regime switching. Applied Economics. 2017; 49(13): 1255–1272. doi: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1217305

[24]Xu X, Chen X, Jia F, et al. Supply chain finance: A systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis. International Journal of Production Economics. 2018; 204: 160–173. doi: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2018.08.003

[25]Sui L, Sun L. Spillover effects between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from BRICS around the recent global financial crisis. Research in International Business and Finance. 2016; 36: 459–471. doi: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.10.011

[26]Nandha M, Hammoudeh S. Systematic risk, and oil price and exchange rate sensitivities in Asia-Pacific stock markets. Research in International Business and Finance. 2007; 21(2): 326–341.

[27]Bahmani-Oskooee M, Sohrabian A. Stock prices and the effective exchange rate of the dollar. Applied Economics. 1992; 24(4): 459–464. doi: 10.1080/00036849200000020

[28]Nieh CC, Lee CF. Dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for G-7 countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance. 2001; 41(4): 477–490.

[29]Kim KH. Dollar exchange rate and stock price: Evidence from multivariate cointegration and error correction model. Review of Financial economics. 2003; 12(3): 301–313.

[30]Zhao H. Dynamic relationship between exchange rate and stock price: Evidence from China. Research in International Business and Finance. 2010; 24(2): 103–112.

[31]Ahmed N. The effect of the financial crisis on the dynamic relation between foreign exchange and stock returns. Journal of Economic Studies. 2018; 45(5): 994–1031. doi: 10.1108/jes-10-2017-0308

[32]Small H. Co-citation in the scientific literature: A new measure of the relationship between two documents. Journal of the American Society for Information Science. 1973; 24(4): 265–269. doi: 10.1002/asi.4630240406

[33]Rossetto DE, Bernardes RC, Borini FM, et al. Structure and evolution of innovation research in the last 60 years: Review and future trends in the field of business through the citations and co-citations analysis. Scientometrics. 2018; 115(3): 1329–1363. doi: 10.1007/s11192-018-2709-7.

[34]Hjørland B. Facet analysis: The logical approach to knowledge organization. Information Processing & Management. 2013; 49(2): 545–557. doi: 10.1016/j.ipm.2012.10.001.

[35]Radicchi F, Castellano C, Cecconi F, et al. Defining and identifying communities in networks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2004; 101(9): 2658–2663. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0400054101.

[36]Dagher L, El Hariri S. The impact of global oil price shocks on the Lebanese stock market. Energy. 2013; 63: 366–374. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.10.012.

[37]de Oliveira EM, Cunha FAFS, Cyrino Oliveira FL, et al. Dynamic relationships between crude oil prices and socially responsible investing in Brazil: Evidence for linear and non-linear causality. Applied Economics. 2017; 49(22): 2125–2140.

[38]Ghosh S, Kanjilal K. Co-movement of international crude oil price and Indian stock market: Evidences from nonlinear cointegration tests. Energy Economics. 2016; 53: 111–117. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.11.002

[39]Abuoliem N, Nor SM, Lola MS, et al. Dynamic interactions among the industrial sector and its determinants in Jordan. Investment Management and Financial Innovations. 2019; 16(4); 325–341.

[40]Bondia R, Ghosh S, Kanjilal K. International crude oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy and technology companies: Evidence from non-linear cointegration tests with unknown structural breaks. Energy. 2016; 101: 558–565. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.02.031.

[41]Banda K, Hall JH, Pradhan RP. The impact of macroeconomic variables on industrial shares listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies. 2019; 12(3): 270–292. doi: 10.1080/17520843.2019.1599034

[42]Chang BH, Rajput SKO. Do the changes in macroeconomic variables have a symmetric or asymmetric effect on stock prices? Evidence from Pakistan. South Asian Journal of Business Studies. 2018; 7(3): 312–331. doi: 10.1108/sajbs-07-2018-0077

[43]Chiou JS, Lee YH. Jump dynamics and volatility: Oil and the stock markets. Energy. 2009; 34(6): 788–796. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2009.02.011.

[44]Cobo MJ, López-Herrera AG, Herrera-Viedma E, et al. An approach for detecting, quantifying, and visualizing the evolution of a research field: A practical application to the Fuzzy Sets Theory field. Journal of Informetrics. 2011; 5(1): 146–166. doi: 10.1016/j.joi.2010.10.002

[45]Halaç U, Dilvin T, Çağlar Ç. The Turkish stock market integration with oil prices: Cointegration analysis with unknown regime shifts. Panoeconomicus. 2013; 60(4): 499–513. doi: 10.2298/pan1304499h.

[46]Huang L, Shi X, Zhang N, et al. Bibliometric analysis of trends and issues in traditional medicine for stroke research: 2004–2018. BMC Complementary Medicine and Therapies. 2020; 20(1): 1–10. doi: 10.1186/s12906-020-2832-x.

[47]Hung NT. Time-frequency linkages between international commodities and the brics equity markets. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research. 2022; 56(4/2022): 123–139. doi: 10.24818/18423264/56.4.22.08.

[48]Jiang Z, Yoon SM. Dynamic co-movement between oil and stock markets in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries: Two types of wavelet analysis. Energy Economics. 2020; 90: 104835. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104835.

[49]Obben J, Pech A, Shakur S. Analysis of the relationship between the share market performance and exchange rates in New Zealand: A cointegrating VAR approach. New Zealand Economic Papers. 2006; 40(2): 147–180.

[50]Olayeni OR, Tiwari AK, Wohar ME. Global economic activity, crude oil price and production, stock market behaviour and the Nigeria-US exchange rate. Energy economics. 2020; 92: 104938.

[51]Okorie IE, Akpanta AC, Ohakwe J, et al. Modeling the relationships across Nigeria inflation, exchange rate, and stock market returns and further analysis. Annals of Data Science. 2021; 8: 295–329.

[52]Rahman AA, Sidek NZM, Tafri FH. Macroeconomic Determinants of Malaysian Stock Market. AfricanJournal of Business Management. 2009; 3(3): 95–106.

[53]Ratanapakorn O, Sharma SC. Dynamic analysis between the US StockReturn and the Macroeconomic variables. Applied Financial Economics. 2007; 17(5): 369–377. doi: 10.1080/09603100600638944

[54]Tian GG, Ma S. The relationship between stock returns and the foreign exchange rate: The ARDL approach. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy. 2010; 15(4): 490–508. doi: 10.1080/13547860.2010.516171